QUALITY VS. QUANTITY
If economic growth depended purely on population growth, third-world countries would be rich and powerful
BY KEN WARD

Ken Ward is opinion page editor of the Press Journal in Vero Beach, Fla. A Las Vegas resident from 1990-2002, he was a freelance columnist with the R-J and assistant managing editor at the Sun. E-mail him at [email protected]  Other stories by Ken Ward

Living in Las Vegas is great training for the real world. A city so hyped up on growth steroids gives you a leading-edge perspective on development issues besetting other communities. Take central-east Florida, for instance. This once out-of-the-way place between Orlando and Palm Beach has been �discovered� in recent years by suburban sprawlers and big national builders. In 2005, St. Lucie County ranked No. 1 in the nation for its percentage of population growth.
With 500,000 residents, it�s nowhere near Las Vegas� size, of course. But as folks flock in, they bring the s
ame old baggage � congestion, pollution, crime, water restrictions, etc.

Looking to get their piece of the action, developers came up with a name, the Treasure Coast, to put this three-county region on the map and to drive more growth. The mantra here, as in Vegas, is that more people equal more prosperity.

But if Vegas taught me one thing, it graphically demonstrated how regular, everyday citizens get steamrolled by the industrial growth machine. Residents lose their grip on the political levers and get stuffed into a development complex not of their making.

Growth advocates have the money and influence to dictate the terms of engagement. They deftly deploy �economists� to prove that growth is �inevitable� and that bigger really is better. But, really, what do you get when you let others define quality of life? You buy into a pyramid scheme of land speculation, environmental degradation and an even higher cost of living. Las Vegans know that equation all too well.

Fortunately, some independent-minded economists have gotten wise to the growth game that�s played under the guise of �economic development.�

�The Florida counties with the fastest population growth are not the higher-income places,�� says Mark Soskin, associate professor of economics at the University of Central Florida.

�For example, Seminole County has the highest household income in the state, though its population growth rate is substantially (even spectacularly) less than surrounding low-income counties of Lake, Marion, Flagler, Polk and Osceola.��

Soskin�s model works macroeconomically, as well.

Sharmila Whelan, an economist at the investment bank CLSA, concluded in a recent report that nations with small, stagnant or falling populations can produce strong, sustainable economies.

�If economic growth depended purely on population increase, Africa, Latin America, Indonesia and the Philippines would be rich and powerful today,�� notes Financial Times writer Victor Mallet.

The bigger-is-better mania has put Florida in a precarious position. Though we�re a national leader in job creation, wages have actually fallen in real dollars. While developers have taken the state�s �growth-management act� on an unprecedented building binge, high-paying jobs have not followed.

And guess what? Floridians are scrambling off the treadmill. Increasingly, they�re exiting the state for slower-growth, lower-cost regions of the country (e.g., not Las Vegas).

Whether you live in Vegas or California or Florida, it�s a useful exercise to question the conventional wisdom that greases the growth machine.

• When people say population growth builds �quality of life,� ask how and for whom exactly.
• As government imposes (or raises) development impact fees, ask why growth-related taxes continue to go up on the people who already live here.
• If your community is so �livable� and �attractive,� will unending growth make it more so � or will that turn it into something different?
• Since the cost of living is higher in larger cities, where isthe cost benefit of growth?
• Why do so many politicians and developers resist efforts to give voters a direct say on comprehensive-plan and zoning changes?

Growth-grubbing economists talk about a rising tide lifting all boats. But while economies may expand, the environment does not. Every acre that�s paved over in the name of �progress� is lost to future generations. Nature gives ground until there�s no nature left.

Even �green� initiatives like land trusts and taxpayer-funded conservation bonds can be hijacked to facilitate more growth through real-estate swaps and density bonuses.

Thanks to outrageous land speculation, rapacious national builders and spineless local governments, once-hot real-estate markets have gone cold. But don�t be fooled: The growth machine isn�t out of gas; it�s merely idling � waiting for the next opportunity.

If you�re tired of being whipsawed, start thinking critically about what�s causing these manufactured crises. Stop enabling the folks who leverage �economic development� to turn your little piece of the world into something it�s not.

Nevadans were cornered long ago when the federal government seized 90 percent of the state�s land and the casino industry set up shop in Clark County. But, in most of America, people still have choices, and local politicians are still responsive to voters.